Has the current wave of the pandemic ended? The latest official assessment.

Posting Date:2023-02-24Views:
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   On the 23rd, the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council held a press conference to brief on the consolidation of major achievements in epidemic prevention and control. Mi Feng, spokesperson for the National Health Commission, introduced that recently, outbreaks across various regions have been sporadic and localized. The overall prevention and control situation is trending positively, marking a steady transition into the stage of routine prevention and control under "Class B infectious disease management."

 

  China's epidemic is still in a sporadic, localized outbreak state

 

Liang Wannian, head of the expert group on epidemic response and处置 at the National Health Commission, stated that based on the characteristics of the epidemic itself, it can be said that the epidemic has largely ended, though not completely. The current infections in China are sporadic and localized in nature.

 

Liang Wannian explained that different indicators can be used to determine the criteria for emerging from a pandemic, depending on the perspective. From the viewpoint of epidemic prevention and control, especially from a public health perspective, he believes the main indicators are as follows:

 

First, the infection rate of the disease, including both cumulative infection rate and new infection rate. Second, the population's immunity level or immunization rate, measured by antibody levels in the body, i.e., the status of immune barriers and immune protection. Third, the pathogen, i.e., whether the novel coronavirus has undergone qualitative mutations of public health significance. Fourth, from the perspective of healthcare supply, factors such as daily outpatient visits, hospitalizations, severe cases, deaths, and the overall response capacity of the medical system. Finally, the overall prevention and control capability, including whether the mechanisms, means, and ability to control the disease are essentially in place.

 

  XBB.1.5 is unlikely to trigger a new large-scale wave in the near term

 

At the press conference, Yang Feng, Director of the Monitoring and Early Warning Division of the National Disease Control and Prevention Administration, introduced that China has initially established a multi-channel surveillance system that balances routine and emergency responses, imported and domestic cases, urban and rural areas, and general and key populations.

 

In the next step, the National Disease Control and Prevention Administration will work with relevant departments to further improve the surveillance and early warning system, strengthen epidemic monitoring and routine early warning capabilities, enhance monitoring quality, reinforce the monitoring and early warning mechanism, and improve cross-disciplinary, multi-disciplinary expert teams. Efforts will continue to enhance the functionality of the direct online infectious disease reporting system, increase the level of informatization in data collection, and improve intelligent analysis capabilities. Special inspections will be carried out on the reporting of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 to promote standardized, lawful, and timely reporting.

 

Regarding the newly discovered cases of variant strains reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)—one case of XBB.1.5 and one case of BQ.1—Chang Zhaorui, a researcher from the Division of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control at the China CDC, stated during the press conference that current data shows that since COVID-19 was classified as a "Class B infectious disease managed as Class B" on January 8, one domestic XBB.1.5 case linked to an imported case has been detected through surveillance. This case was a close contact of the imported case. Detailed epidemiological investigations, health monitoring of related close contacts, and expert assessments have not revealed any further secondary cases.

 

Chang Zhaorui introduced that current data indicate that symptoms following infection with XBB.1.5 are similar to those caused by other Omicron strains, with no evidence of increased pathogenicity. "China has just experienced a major epidemic wave, and the neutralizing antibodies present in the population will provide immune protection in the short term. Expert analysis suggests that it is unlikely to trigger a new large-scale wave in the near future."

 

  Fever and diarrhea symptoms should primarily be considered as possible intestinal diseases

 

Chang Zhaorui stated that COVID-19 infection is mainly characterized by symptoms such as fever, dry or sore throat, and cough, with some patients possibly experiencing diarrhea. When fever and diarrhea occur, attention should primarily be given to the possibility of intestinal diseases such as acute gastroenteritis, especially as we are currently in the peak season for norovirus infections. Recently, health tips regarding norovirus infections have been released on disease control department websites and WeChat official accounts; the public can follow these tips for protection.

 

Chang Zhaorui noted that COVID-19 cases continue to occur in various regions, and individuals who have not been previously infected still face a risk of infection. Schools are densely populated areas; once a source of infection is introduced, uninfected individuals are at risk. However, given the current relatively high level of overall immunity in the population, the risk of large-scale outbreaks is low.

 

Chang Zhaorui suggested that when outbreaks occur in schools, a balance should be struck between outbreak response and maintaining normal teaching order. Professionals should conduct comprehensive assessments and risk evaluations based on factors such as the students' prior infection status, disease severity, stage of the outbreak, and the virus strain, before implementing relevant measures.

 

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